Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 95% YES | 5% NO |
The market assesses whether Iran's government remains in power following a U.S. military strike on Iranian territory before June 2026. The resolution requires two conditions: confirmed U.S. military action against Iran and the regime's survival through the settlement date. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 93% implied probability for regime survival, pricing in the expectation that even direct military engagement would not precipitate immediate governmental collapse.
Historical precedent suggests regimes withstand isolated military strikes without fundamental collapse. Iran itself survived eight years of warfare with Iraq (1980–1988) and numerous Israeli airstrikes on nuclear and military facilities without regime change. The 2003 Iraq invasion demonstrated that sustained ground operations, not air campaigns alone, typically determine governmental survival. The 2011 Libya intervention, conversely, resulted in regime collapse but involved NATO-led ground support and civil war conditions absent from current Iran scenarios. These cases inform the high survival probability: air strikes alone have rarely toppled entrenched state apparatus, particularly one with established security forces and territorial control.
Near-term catalysts include escalating tensions around Iranian nuclear programme developments and regional proxy activities. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional sources indicates ongoing U.S.–Israeli coordination discussions regarding potential strike targets. The market's probability reflects trader assessment that whilst military action remains plausible within the timeframe, the Iranian state apparatus—despite economic pressures and internal dissent—possesses sufficient institutional resilience to persist through a limited strike scenario. Traders should monitor U.S. policy announcements, Israeli military posturing, and Iranian nuclear developments as primary drivers of repricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$738K in lifetime turnover and $92K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 95%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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