Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President? | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Nechirvan Barzani has served as President of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) since June 2019, following the resignation of Masoud Barzani. The market assesses the probability that Barzani will leave office—through resignation, removal, or any other mechanism—before 30 June 2026. The 4% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects relatively low near-term risk of departure, though the settlement window spans roughly 18 months from typical market creation dates.
KRG leadership transitions have historically been shaped by factional tensions within the Barzani family's Democratic Party of Kurdistan (PDK) and broader Iraqi Kurdish politics. Masoud Barzani's 2019 resignation came after sustained pressure over military setbacks and governance disputes, demonstrating that even entrenched leaders face removal when internal consensus fractures. However, Nechirvan Barzani has consolidated support more effectively, maintaining backing from the PDK's dominant faction and navigating relations with rival parties including the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The relatively low probability reflects this current stability, though KRG politics remain volatile.
Traders should monitor several catalysts: parliamentary elections or confidence votes within the KRG legislature; major shifts in Iraqi federal-regional relations that could destabilise Erbil's political balance; health developments affecting Barzani; or significant internal PDK disputes. Recent reporting on KRG governance has focused on economic pressures and federal budget disputes rather than leadership challenges. Any formal announcement of resignation or removal would trigger immediate resolution to "Yes" regardless of implementation timing, making official statements the critical resolution event.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 4%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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