Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0-1% | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| 3-4% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| <0 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 1-2% | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| 2-3% | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 4-5% | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| 5%+ | 30% YES | 70% NO |
The Office for National Statistics will release its first quarterly estimate of UK real GDP growth for the full calendar year 2026 on 12 February 2027. This figure will determine whether annual growth reaches or exceeds 2.0%, the threshold dividing YES and NO outcomes. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 46% probability of YES, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the UK's economic trajectory over the coming year.
Historical context suggests caution around consensus forecasts. The Office for Budget Responsibility's autumn 2024 projection placed 2026 growth at 1.9%, marginally below the 2.0% threshold, though such estimates have frequently shifted materially between publication and outturn. The UK's growth performance in 2024–2025 will substantially influence 2026 trajectories; persistent weakness in business investment or consumer spending could extend into next year, whilst a recovery in productivity or external demand could accelerate expansion. The current 46% probability reflects these competing scenarios without a decisive lean either direction.
Key catalysts include the Budget's March 2025 forecasts, quarterly GDP releases throughout 2026 that will progressively narrow uncertainty, and any significant shifts in monetary policy from the Bank of England. Labour market data, inflation trends, and fiscal announcements will all feed into market expectations as 2026 approaches. The February 2027 settlement date means traders face roughly two years of information arrival before resolution, during which the implied probability will likely shift substantially as economic data accumulates.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "UK Annual GDP Growth 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for gdp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 February 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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