Trade: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for May 14 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $20K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| NRFI | 42% YES | 58% NO |
Market context
The Philadelphia Phillies face the Boston Red Sox on 14 May at 6:45PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for a Phillies victory, indicating near-parity between the two sides as traders price the contest. This probability has formed through the aggregated positions of market participants responding to roster availability, recent form, and pitching matchups.
Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance, though context-specific factors dominate individual game outcomes more than long-term head-to-head records. The Phillies' 2024 performance and current roster composition relative to the Red Sox's recent trajectory will inform how traders adjust from the current midpoint. Early-season form, injury reports, and divisional standing typically drive repricing in baseball futures, with the 51% reading suggesting neither team carries a pronounced advantage in market estimation.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time and frequently trigger repricing. Roster updates regarding key position players or relief availability can shift the order book materially. Weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park may also influence trading activity, as wind direction and temperature affect ball carry distance. The settlement window extends to 21 May at 22:45 UTC, allowing for postponements or rescheduling without market closure, a standard provision for weather-affected baseball fixtures.
Wikipedia Context
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Philadelphia PhilliesThe Philadelphia Phillies are an American professional baseball team based in Philadelphia. The Phillies compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) East Division. Since 2004, the team's home stadium has been Citizens Bank Park, located in the South Philadelphia Sports Complex.
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Philadelphia Phillies minor league players
Below are the rosters of the minor league affiliates of the Philadelphia Phillies:
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Philadelphia Phillies Wall of FameThe Philadelphia Phillies Wall of Fame, formerly known as the Philadelphia Baseball Wall of Fame and officially known as the Toyota Phillies Wall of Fame for sponsorship reasons, is an exhibit located at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The exhibit is a collection of plaques that honor players and personnel who made significant contributions
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Philadelphia Phillies all-time roster (W–Z)The Philadelphia Phillies are a Major League Baseball team based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. They are a member of the Eastern Division of Major League Baseball's National League. The team has played officially under two names since beginning play between 1882 and 1883: the current moniker, as well as the "Quakers", which was used in conjunction with "Phil
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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