Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for May 7 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| NRFI | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | — | |
| O/U 10.5 | — | |
| Spread -2.5 | — | |
| O/U 12.5 | — | |
The Cleveland Guardians face the Kansas City Royals on 7 May at 2:10PM ET in an American League Central divisional matchup. The crowd-implied probability of 67% favours Cleveland, reflecting their stronger recent performance and roster composition relative to Kansas City.
Cleveland has maintained competitive advantage over Kansas City in recent seasons, with the Guardians consistently finishing ahead in divisional standings. Historically, Cleveland's pitching depth and offensive consistency have provided reliable edges in head-to-head matchups. The Royals, whilst capable of producing upset victories, have struggled with consistency across 2024 and into 2025. Comparable divisional contests between these teams over the past three seasons show Cleveland winning approximately 55–60% of regular-season games, suggesting the current 67% probability reflects either above-average confidence in Cleveland's form or particular strength in their scheduled starting pitcher.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically confirm 24–48 hours before game time. Recent injury reports affecting either roster—particularly Cleveland's position players or Kansas City's bullpen depth—could shift probability meaningfully. Weather conditions at the scheduled 2:10PM ET start time warrant attention, as afternoon games in early May occasionally face postponement risk. The settlement window extends to 14 May, providing buffer for rescheduling should weather or other factors force a delay. Any last-minute roster moves or unexpected absences from either team's lineup could influence the probability, particularly if they affect starting pitchers or key offensive contributors.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$525K in lifetime turnover and $111K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $522K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: