Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Ozarox Esports and SU Esports in the TCL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 13 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ozarox Esports" if Ozarox Esports win the match against SU Esports. This market will resolve to "SU Esports" if SU Esports win the match against Ozarox Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Game Handicap: OZO (-1.5) vs SU Esports (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Ozarox Esports and SU Esports are scheduled to contest a best-of-three League of Legends match in Turkey's TCL Regular Season on 13 May at 10:30 AM ET. The market currently reflects a 52% implied probability for Ozarox victory across Polymarket's order book, suggesting near-parity between the two sides. Settlement occurs at 20:30 UTC on 11 May, providing a narrow window for resolution; any match cancellation, tie, or delay exceeding seven days from the scheduled date triggers a 50-50 split.
TCL fixtures typically proceed as scheduled given the league's established infrastructure, though regional esports disruptions remain possible. Historical precedent from comparable Turkish and regional League competitions shows that regular-season matches between mid-table teams rarely attract the scheduling friction seen in international tournaments. The current probability sits close to a coin flip, suggesting the market has limited conviction on either roster's form or recent performance data.
Traders should monitor TCL official announcements for any roster changes, player availability issues, or schedule modifications in the days preceding 13 May. Recent team performance records, scrim results if leaked, and any meta shifts in the broader League competitive environment could shift the probability before the settlement window closes. The tight implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than strong directional sentiment, making this a market sensitive to new information about either team's preparation or circumstances.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Ozarox Esports vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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