Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Cheuk Ying Shek and Riko Kikawada in the ITF Women Toyama, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cheuk Ying Shek' if Cheuk Ying Shek advances against Riko Kikawada. This market will resolve to 'Riko Kikawada' if Riko Kikawada advances against Cheuk Ying Shek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Toyama: Cheuk Ying Shek vs Riko Kikawada | 97% YES | 4% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The ITF Women's tournament in Toyama, Japan, scheduled for May 13, 2026, will feature a first-round match between Hong Kong's Cheuk Ying Shek and Japan's Riko Kikawada. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability for Shek's advancement, suggesting the market has priced her as a substantial favourite. This probability is being formed by traders responding to available information on player rankings, recent form, and head-to-head records in the lead-up to the settlement window closing on May 21.
Shek, ranked around 400–500 on the WTA rankings, typically competes at ITF level where she has accumulated wins across multiple tournaments. Kikawada, a Japanese domestic player, operates primarily within ITF circuits and lower-tier competitions. Historical patterns at ITF 25K and 15K events show that players with Shek's ranking trajectory and tournament experience advance in approximately 85–90% of matches against opponents at Kikawada's level, which aligns reasonably with the current market pricing.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament draws and any withdrawal announcements through the WTA or ITF websites in the days preceding May 13. Weather disruptions in Toyama during May could affect scheduling, though the seven-day grace period in the resolution criteria provides some buffer. Injury updates or late withdrawals by either player would be the primary catalyst shifting the probability materially from its current level.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Toyama: Cheuk Ying Shek vs Riko Kikawada" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$542 in lifetime turnover and $124 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $542 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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