Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Hungary NB I game between Ferencvarosi Budapest and Zalaegerszeg TE, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 11:15 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Ferencvarosi Budapest vs. Zalaegerszeg TE match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 11:15 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Ferencvarosi Budapest will face Zalaegerszeg TE in Hungary's top division on 16 May 2026, with this market pricing the probability of an exact final score at 5% based on current Polymarket order book activity. The settlement window closes at 15:15 UTC, approximately four hours after the scheduled 11:15 AM ET kick-off, allowing for the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time to be counted.
Exact score markets in football typically reflect the mathematical improbability of predicting precise outcomes rather than underlying match uncertainty. Ferencvarosi, as Budapest's dominant club with multiple league titles, would be expected favourites in any fixture, yet exact score predictions remain inherently difficult across all matchups. Historical data from comparable European leagues shows exact score markets rarely exceed 8–12% implied probability for any single outcome, even when one side is heavily favoured. The 5% current probability suggests the market has settled on a moderately likely scoreline given the teams' expected quality differential.
Traders should monitor team news through mid-May, particularly injury updates and squad rotation patterns as the season concludes. Ferencvarosi's fixture congestion and any European competition involvement could affect squad availability. Weather conditions on match day and recent form trajectories—particularly whether either side is chasing or securing final standings positions—may influence tactical approach and goal-scoring likelihood. Hungarian media outlets and official club announcements typically release team sheets 24 hours before fixtures, providing final confirmation of available personnel.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlsz.hu/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ferencvarosi Budapest vs. Zalaegerszeg TE - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlsz.hu/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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