Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, June 13, 2026 between Haiti and Scotland.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Scotland | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Haiti | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Draw (Haiti vs. Scotland) | 20% YES | 81% NO |
Haiti and Scotland are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 13 June 2026. The match forms part of the tournament's opening phase, with both nations seeking early points in their respective qualifying groups. The current order book on Polymarket prices Haiti's victory at 67 per cent implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment of the relative strength of the two sides ahead of kick-off.
Scotland has a longer history of World Cup participation and qualified for the 2022 tournament in Qatar, though they exited in the group stage. Haiti, by contrast, last appeared in the World Cup in 1974 and has faced significant structural challenges in developing competitive football infrastructure. Historical precedent suggests that nations with established qualifying track records and regular tournament exposure tend to perform more favourably in group-stage encounters against sides with limited recent World Cup experience. The 67 per cent probability assigned to Haiti therefore represents a notable market view that deviates from historical patterns.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key attacking and defensive personnel. Fixture scheduling within the group—including which other teams Haiti and Scotland face—will influence group dynamics and potential outcomes. Recent form in qualifying matches and any pre-tournament friendlies will provide updated information on squad cohesion and tactical preparation, potentially shifting the current probability before settlement on 14 June.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Haiti vs. Scotland" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $677 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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