Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit Week of June 1 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $6.75 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| ↑ $6.50 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| ↑ $6.25 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| ↑ $6.00 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| ↑ $5.75 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ↑ $5.50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $5.25 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $5.00 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Opendoor Technologies, the iBuying platform that purchases homes directly from sellers, will either reach or exceed a specific price target during the week commencing 1 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 10% probability, reflecting modest conviction that the stock will hit this level within the five-day settlement window. The tight timeframe concentrates risk around a single week rather than a broader period, making this a volatile micro-cap style bet despite OPEN's mid-cap status.
Opendoor's historical volatility provides context for interpreting the current 10% odds. The company's share price has experienced substantial swings tied to housing market sentiment, quarterly earnings surprises, and shifts in real estate transaction volumes. Prior instances of sharp weekly moves have typically coincided with earnings releases, analyst downgrades, or macroeconomic data affecting mortgage rates and home sales activity. The low probability suggests traders view the target as materially above current levels, requiring either a significant catalyst or sustained upward momentum unlikely to materialise within five trading days.
Key catalysts entering the settlement window include any scheduled earnings announcements, guidance revisions, or broader housing market data releases that could shift investor sentiment toward iBuying platforms. Mortgage rate movements and existing home sales figures published by the National Association of Realtors would influence sector-wide positioning. Traders should monitor Opendoor's operational metrics—particularly home purchase volume and gross profit margins—as these directly affect institutional investor confidence in the business model's viability during economic uncertainty.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.OPEN%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "What will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit Week of June 1 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$511 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $511 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.OPEN%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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