Trade: Lowe's Q1 comparable sales growth?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Lowe's announced comparable sales growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $142
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| <0% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 0.5%–1% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 1.5%+ | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| 0%–0.5% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 1%–1.5% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Market context
Lowe's will report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 comparable sales growth in May 2026, with the market currently pricing a 46% probability that this metric will exceed expectations or meet a specified threshold. The home improvement retailer's comparable sales performance reflects underlying demand for DIY projects, professional contractor activity, and discretionary spending on home renovation—metrics sensitive to consumer confidence, interest rates, and housing market conditions.
Lowe's comparable sales growth has historically ranged between -3% and +5% in first quarters over the past five years, with Q1 2025 showing modest growth amid mixed housing sentiment. The current 46% implied probability reflects uncertainty around consumer spending patterns heading into spring, traditionally the strongest season for home improvement retail. Historical precedent suggests that Q1 results often trail full-year performance, as winter weather and post-holiday spending constraints typically weigh on early-year figures.
Traders should monitor housing starts data, consumer confidence indices, and mortgage rate movements through April 2026, as these directly influence foot traffic and transaction sizes at Lowe's. The company's earnings announcement date, typically scheduled for late May, will trigger settlement. Recent quarterly reports from Home Depot and other home improvement competitors will provide comparative context for assessing Lowe's performance relative to sector trends. Any significant macroeconomic shifts or policy changes affecting housing affordability could materially shift the order book pricing in the weeks preceding the earnings release.
Wikipedia Context
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Rob LoweRobert Hepler Lowe is an American actor, filmmaker, and entertainment host. Following numerous television roles in the early 1980s, he came to prominence as a teen idol and member of the Brat Pack with starring roles in The Outsiders (1983), Class (1983), The Hotel New Hampshire (1984), Oxford Blues (1984), St. Elmo's Fire (1985), About Last Night... (1986),
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Rupert LoweRupert James Graham Lowe is a British politician who has served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Great Yarmouth since 2024. Elected for Reform UK, he sat as an independent from March 2025 to March 2026 following the suspension of the party whip. Lowe founded the political organisation Restore Britain on 30 June 2025, and registered it as an official poli
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Lowe'sLowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States. As of October 28, 2022, Lowe's and its related businesses operated 2,181 home improvement and hardware stores in North America.
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Arthur LoweArthur Lowe was an English actor. His acting career spanned 37 years, including starring roles in numerous theatre and television productions. He played Captain Mainwaring in the British sitcom Dad's Army from 1968 until 1977, was nominated for seven BAFTAs and became one of the most recognised faces on UK television. He won his only BAFTA, the Award for Bes
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Lowe's Q1 comparable sales growth?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $142 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Lowe's Q1 comparable sales growth?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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