Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, June 9, 2026 between Philippines and Myanmar.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Philippines vs. Myanmar) | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Philippines | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Myanmar | 49% YES | 52% NO |
The Philippines national football team will face Myanmar in a FIFA International Friendly on Tuesday, 9 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Philippines victory at 48 per cent implied probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty between two Southeast Asian sides with disparate recent form and competitive trajectories.
Historical matchups between these nations show a narrow competitive gap, though the Philippines has generally held a slight edge in direct encounters over the past decade. Myanmar's qualification for the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifiers demonstrated defensive solidity, whilst the Philippines has struggled to maintain consistency at the regional level. The 48 per cent probability suggests the market views this as a near coin-flip, with Myanmar's home advantage (if applicable) and recent domestic league performance offsetting the Philippines' marginally stronger international record. Comparable friendlies between lower-ranked Asian nations typically settle around these probability levels when historical records are mixed and squad depth is uncertain.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations, expected in late May 2026, as injury absences or late call-ups could shift expectations materially. The timing of domestic league seasons in both countries—Myanmar's Myanmar National League and the Philippines' PFL—will influence player availability and match sharpness. Venue confirmation and any last-minute fixture changes remain potential catalysts. Recent form in June 2026 qualifying rounds or regional tournaments immediately preceding this friendly will provide the most reliable signal for late-market movement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Philippines vs. Myanmar" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11 in lifetime turnover and $431 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fifa friendly contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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