Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 4.25% | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| 2.25% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 3.25% | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| 3.75% | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| 3.0% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 2.5% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2.75% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 3.5% | 11% YES | 89% NO |
The Federal Reserve will announce its target federal funds rate at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with the upper bound of that range determining this market's resolution. The current 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader expectations that rates will remain elevated through year-end 2026, with the crowd pricing in a very low likelihood of the upper bound reaching the specific level required for a YES resolution.
Historical precedent suggests the Fed's rate trajectory depends heavily on inflation persistence and labour market conditions. The central bank cut rates aggressively in 2024 after inflation moderated from its 2022 peaks, but the pace and endpoint of easing cycles vary substantially. The 2019 rate cuts occurred over nine months; the 2020 emergency cuts happened within weeks. Current market pricing reflects uncertainty about whether disinflation continues smoothly or stalls, which would materially affect how many cuts the Fed implements between now and December 2026.
Traders should monitor quarterly inflation data releases, employment reports, and Fed communications for signals about the Committee's confidence in price stability. The FOMC meets eight times annually, with the December meeting scheduled for 8–9 December 2026. Recent Fed commentary, particularly from Chair Powell's post-meeting statements and congressional testimony, will shape expectations about the terminal rate level. Economic surprises—whether stronger-than-expected wage growth or weaker-than-expected demand—could shift the entire easing trajectory, making the current 3% probability either overpriced or underpriced depending on incoming data.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6.5M in lifetime turnover and $140K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for fed rates contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $637 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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