Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Georgia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Greece | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| San Marino | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Country A | — | |
| Country E | — | |
| Country J | — | |
| Country K | — | |
| Belgium | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Eurovision 2026's first semi-final will take place on 12 May, with participating nations competing for the highest combined jury and televote score in that heat. The competition splits entrants across two semi-finals before the grand final, meaning only one country's representative can win the most points in the opening semi-final. The current order book on Polymarket prices this specific outcome at 1% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which nation will field a competitive entry and advance with the top score.
Historical Eurovision semi-final results show considerable variance in which countries dominate their respective heats. Strong traditional performers like Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands frequently advance with high scores, yet semi-final winners often differ from grand final victors, and occasional surprises emerge from less-favoured entries. The 2024 and 2025 competitions demonstrated that semi-final performance depends heavily on song quality, staging, jury composition and voting patterns that remain unpredictable months in advance. At 1% probability, the market reflects that most traders view this outcome as unlikely for the listed country relative to the broader field.
Key catalysts include the official announcement of participating nations (typically by January 2026), the semi-final draw determining which countries compete in which heat, and artist/song reveals closer to May. The European Broadcasting Union's scheduling and any last-minute withdrawals could alter competitive dynamics. Traders should monitor EBU announcements and entertainment media coverage tracking favourites and dark horses as the competition date approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$112K in lifetime turnover and $310K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for eurovision contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $109K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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