Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down on May 10? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether Ethereum's price on 10 May 2026 at noon ET will be higher or lower than its price on 9 May 2026 at noon ET, using Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle closes as the settlement source. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this outcome at 100% implied probability for "Up", suggesting traders expect a price increase over the 24-hour window. This extreme probability reading warrants scrutiny, as intraday price movements of this magnitude are typically subject to considerable volatility and uncertainty.
Short-term directional bets on Ethereum have historically shown mean reversion patterns when probabilities reach consensus extremes. Markets pricing single-day moves at near-certainty often reflect either genuine information asymmetry or crowded positioning that can reverse sharply. Comparable 24-hour directional markets on major assets rarely sustain 100% implied probabilities unless backed by scheduled events or extraordinary circumstances. The settlement window closing on 10 May at 16:00 UTC provides a 4-hour buffer after the noon ET reference point, allowing for potential late-session volatility to influence the final candle close.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic data releases scheduled between the two settlement timestamps, including any Federal Reserve communications or inflation reports that could drive broader risk-asset movements. Ethereum's correlation with Bitcoin and equities remains a material dependency; large moves in either market typically precede ETH directional shifts. Binance's order flow and funding rates on the settlement date itself will provide real-time signals of positioning ahead of the noon ET close.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$74K in lifetime turnover and $310K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $69K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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