Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1,900 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,100 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,300 | 84% YES | 16% NO |
| 2,400 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on Ethereum's closing price on the Binance ETH/USDT pair at the 12:00 noon ET candle on 9 May 2026. The settlement hinges on a single one-minute candle's close price relative to a specified threshold, making this a precise price-level bet rather than a directional wager. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded data for that specific timestamp and trading pair, excluding other exchanges or spot markets.
The 100% implied probability reflected in current Polymarket order book depth suggests traders are pricing this as a near-certainty event. This typically occurs when the threshold is set substantially below prevailing spot prices or when historical volatility patterns make the target level highly probable. Comparable Ethereum price-level markets have shown that when implied probabilities reach this extreme, the threshold is usually positioned conservatively relative to recent trading ranges. The order book's formation at this level indicates minimal counterparty interest in the "No" side, suggesting the specified price target is well within normal daily trading bounds for ETH/USDT.
Traders should monitor Ethereum's medium-term price trajectory and any significant volatility events approaching the May 2026 settlement window. Regulatory announcements affecting spot trading or Binance's operational status could influence execution conditions, though the specific one-minute candle resolution reduces exposure to intraday noise. Broader cryptocurrency market movements, particularly Bitcoin correlation patterns and macroeconomic shifts, typically drive Ethereum's directional bias over multi-month horizons. The tight focus on a single candle's close price means that flash crashes or brief liquidity dislocations on Binance at precisely 12:00 ET would be the primary execution risk.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above ___ on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$165K in lifetime turnover and $336K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $132K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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