Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1,890 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,900 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,910 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,920 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,930 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,940 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,950 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,960 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT hourly candle closing price at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on 2 June 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects the current order book depth on Polymarket, where traders are pricing near-certainty that Ethereum will close above the specified threshold during that one-hour window. Such extreme probabilities typically emerge when the strike price sits substantially below prevailing spot rates, leaving minimal room for adverse price movement within a single hourly candle.
Historical precedent suggests that hourly price targets set far below current trading levels rarely resolve negatively, particularly when settlement occurs months in advance. The longer the time horizon before resolution, the greater the accumulated uncertainty—yet paradoxically, markets pricing such distant events at extreme probabilities often reflect the mathematical reality that spot price would need to collapse dramatically within a single hour to trigger a "No" outcome. Ethereum's volatility, whilst material on daily and weekly timeframes, concentrates less predictably around specific hourly closes.
Traders monitoring this position should track macroeconomic announcements scheduled near the settlement date, particularly Federal Reserve communications or significant cryptocurrency regulatory developments that could trigger flash volatility. Recent market structure changes, including shifts in exchange liquidity and derivative positioning, can amplify intraday swings. The specific strike price relative to Ethereum's historical trading range in May 2026 will determine whether the current probability reflects genuine consensus or mispricing of tail risk within that final hour.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above 2026 on June 2, 10AM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$250 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $250 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: