Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between AlQadsiah Esports and VillianArc in the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage Middle East Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 13 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "AlQadsiah Esports" if AlQadsiah Esports win the match against VillianArc. This market will resolve to "VillianArc" if VillianArc win the match against AlQadsiah Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 4 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: QE (-2.5) vs VillianArc (+2.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
AlQadsiah Esports and VillianArc are scheduled to contest the grand final of the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage Middle East Playoffs in Valorant on 13 May at 12:00 PM ET. The best-of-five match represents the culmination of the regional competition. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting traders are pricing near-certainty that the match will occur and produce a decisive winner by the settlement deadline of 22:00 UTC on 13 May.
Valorant esports at the regional level has historically demonstrated reliable fixture completion rates, particularly for playoff finals where organisational commitment and venue logistics are typically locked in weeks prior. Grand finals in established circuits rarely face cancellation or tie outcomes; the primary tail risk remains fixture delay beyond the seven-day grace period, though this remains uncommon for scheduled playoffs with confirmed broadcast windows. The extreme probability reading reflects confidence in standard tournament execution rather than predictive certainty about either team's performance.
Key catalysts for traders centre on fixture confirmation and scheduling stability. Official announcements from Riot Games or the VCL MENA organisers regarding venue, broadcast times, or roster changes would move the market. Any roster substitutions, visa complications, or technical issues affecting either team's participation could surface in the 48 hours before play. Monitor VCL MENA's official channels and team social media for last-minute updates; fixture delays have occasionally occurred in regional Valorant competitions when unforeseen logistical issues emerge.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: AlQadsiah Esports vs VillianArc (BO5) - VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage Middle East Playo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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