Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant match between IGZIST and AGELITE in the VCL Japan Main Stage, initially scheduled for June 4 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "IGZIST" if IGZIST win the match against AGELITE. This market will resolve to "AGELITE" if AGELITE win the match against IGZIST. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: AGL (-1.5) vs IGZIST (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AGELITE (-2.5) vs IGZIST (+2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AGELITE (-2.5) vs IGZIST (+2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
IGZIST and AGELITE are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Valorant match on the VCL Japan Main Stage on 4 June 2025 at 6:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting market participants view the match as certain to occur and be completed within the settlement window closing at 16:00 UTC that day. This extreme confidence sits atop an eight-hour window between scheduled start and settlement deadline, leaving minimal buffer for delays or technical complications.
VCL Japan matches historically proceed as scheduled given the league's established infrastructure and broadcast commitments, though regional esports events occasionally face postponements due to player availability or technical issues. The 100% probability pricing indicates traders are discounting meaningful delay risk, which differs from typical esports markets where 5–15% probability mass often reserves for scheduling uncertainties. This positioning suggests either high confidence in both teams' readiness or limited liquidity depth creating price rigidity at extremes.
Traders should monitor official VCL Japan announcements through 3 June for any roster changes, technical rehearsal issues, or broadcast delays that might affect match timing. Recent regional Valorant competitions have generally maintained schedules despite minor delays, though the tight settlement window here means even a 2–3 hour postponement could trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause. Team announcements regarding player availability or substitutions would be the primary catalyst shifting current pricing before the match begins.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_jpn. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: IGZIST vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_jpn. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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