Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Fnatic and Team Vitality in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 8 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win the match against Team Vitality. This market will resolve to "Team Vitality" if Team Vitality win the match against Fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Fnatic and Team Vitality are scheduled to contest the upper bracket semifinal of the VCT EMEA Playoffs on 8 May at 2:00PM ET, with the winner advancing directly to the grand final. The match is a best-of-three series. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating either overwhelming consensus that one outcome is certain or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful spread. This extreme reading warrants scrutiny given the inherent uncertainty in competitive esports.
Historically, EMEA Valorant playoffs have produced upsets when roster changes or meta shifts favour the underdog. Fnatic and Vitality have met multiple times in regional competition, with results varying based on map pool alignment and individual player form on the day. Neither team has demonstrated dominance so complete as to justify a 100% probability in a best-of-three format, where variance remains material across three maps. Recent VCT matches have shown that seeding and pre-tournament expectations often diverge from actual performance.
Key catalysts include roster confirmation and any last-minute substitutions announced before 8 May, as well as the meta state following the most recent Valorant patch. Injury reports or visa complications affecting either squad could alter the match's feasibility. The settlement window closes 9 May at 00:00 UTC, allowing a one-day buffer for match completion. Traders should monitor official VCT communications and team announcements for schedule changes or technical issues that might trigger the tie-resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$676K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $675K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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