Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Fnatic and Team Heretics in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win the match against Team Heretics. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win the match against Fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Match Winner | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Fnatic and Team Heretics will contest a lower bracket quarterfinal in the VCT EMEA Playoffs on 10 May, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from the tournament. The match is scheduled for 11:00 AM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series. Current Polymarket order book pricing reflects 0% implied probability for a Fnatic victory, suggesting the market has assigned near-certain expectation to a Heretics win or is pricing in substantial uncertainty around match completion.
Heretics have demonstrated stronger recent form in EMEA competition, whilst Fnatic have faced roster consistency challenges throughout the 2025 VCT season. Historical precedent in lower bracket matches shows that seeding and recent tournament performance correlate strongly with outcomes, though upsets remain possible in single-elimination formats. The 0% pricing on Fnatic suggests traders view Heretics as prohibitive favourites based on current standings and head-to-head records, though such extreme probabilities typically leave room for contrarian positioning if new information emerges.
Traders should monitor for any roster changes, player health issues, or technical delays announced before the 10 May fixture. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on that date, allowing approximately ten hours post-match for result confirmation. Any cancellation, tie, or failure to complete the series within seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution, a clause worth tracking given esports' vulnerability to technical disruptions and scheduling conflicts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$226K in lifetime turnover and $239K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $226K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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