Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket final match between Bilibili Gaming and FunPlus Phoenix in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1, initially scheduled for May 14 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against FunPlus Phoenix. This market will resolve to "FunPlus Phoenix" if FunPlus Phoenix win the match against Bilibili Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Bilibili Gaming and FunPlus Phoenix will contest the lower bracket final of the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1 in Valorant, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from the tournament. The match is scheduled for 14 May at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Bilibili Gaming at 66% implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that the organisation holds the stronger position heading into this elimination fixture.
Both teams have established track records in Chinese Valorant competition, though recent form and roster stability matter considerably in best-of-three matches where individual performance variance is high. FunPlus Phoenix has historically fielded competitive rosters but has faced inconsistency in qualifying tournaments, whilst Bilibili Gaming has demonstrated more consistent domestic results. The 66% probability suggests the market views Bilibili as the marginal favourite, though the gap remains narrow enough to indicate genuine uncertainty about the outcome.
Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding any schedule changes, as the settlement window extends to 14 May at 15:00 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer before the 50-50 tie-break resolution triggers. Roster confirmations and any last-minute player availability issues could shift the order book materially in the hours before the match. Recent Chinese Valorant coverage from esports news outlets should be tracked for team performance updates and tactical adjustments either side may have implemented since their previous fixtures.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://vlr.gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$116 in lifetime turnover and $65 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $116 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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