Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 6 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Top Esports and JD Gaming are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Ascend on 6 May 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. The match represents a regular-season fixture in China's premier professional league, with settlement contingent on a decisive result by 18:00 UTC on the scheduled date.
The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in Top Esports' superiority or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline price. Historical context matters here: Top Esports has consistently ranked among the LPL's stronger franchises, whilst JD Gaming's competitive standing has fluctuated considerably. In comparable matchups between established and mid-tier LPL sides, the stronger team typically commands 65–75% win probability, suggesting the current market pricing may not reflect typical competitive dynamics unless recent roster changes or performance data have substantially altered the matchup calculus.
Traders should monitor LPL official announcements regarding player availability, particularly any last-minute roster substitutions or health issues that could affect either team's composition. Schedule adherence has been reliable in recent LPL seasons, reducing cancellation risk, though technical disruptions during broadcasts have occasionally caused brief delays. The settlement window's seven-day grace period provides buffer against minor scheduling conflicts, but confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled should be verified through LPL communications closer to the fixture date. Recent team performance metrics and head-to-head records, typically published by esports tracking platforms, will provide more granular probability anchors than the current market state.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.3M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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