Trade: LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Misa Esports and Bushido Wildcats in the TCL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 12 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win the match against Bushido Wildcats. This market will resolve to "Bushido Wildcats" if Bushido Wildcats win the match against Misa Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $37K
- Total Volume
- $20
- 24h Volume
- $20
- Open Interest
- $20
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 85% YES | 15% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs Bushido Wildcats (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% YES | 74% NO |
Market context
Misa Esports face Bushido Wildcats in a Turkish Champions League (TCL) best-of-three fixture scheduled for 12 May at 10:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability favouring Misa, suggesting the market perceives a substantial skill or form differential between the two sides. This probability is being formed across the exchange's liquidity pools, where traders have positioned accordingly based on available information about team rosters, recent performance, and regional standing.
Misa Esports have established themselves as a top-tier TCL contender in recent seasons, typically competing for playoff positions with consistent performances against the region's stronger squads. Bushido Wildcats, by contrast, occupy a lower tier within the league structure. Historical matchups between teams of this calibre differential in regional leagues typically see the favoured side prevail in 85–95% of encounters, which contextualises the current market pricing as broadly aligned with comparable competitive gaps.
Traders should monitor official TCL scheduling announcements for any fixture postponements or cancellations, particularly given the settlement window extends only to 12 May at 20:30 UTC. Roster changes or last-minute player absences could shift the probability, though such announcements are typically made well in advance. The match's completion status is material: if either team forfeits or the match is abandoned without a decisive result, the market resolves 50-50 regardless of current odds.
Wikipedia Context
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Lol SalaamLol Salaam is an Indian Telugu-language adventure comedy web series created and directed by Naani. The series has an ensemble cast of Ajju Bharadwaj, Vasu Inturi, Harsha Vardhan, Darahas Maturu, Kivish Kautilya, Srinivas Ramireddy and Rohit Krishna Varma. It premiered on 25 June 2021 on ZEE5.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$20 in lifetime turnover and $37K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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