Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and JD Gaming in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2, initially scheduled for April 14 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bilibili Gaming and JD Gaming are scheduled to compete in an upper bracket semifinal of the League of Legends Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 on 14 April 2026. The winner advances further in the qualifier tournament, which determines China's representation at the global Esports World Cup. The match is a best-of-three format, with the fixture set for 2:00 AM ET. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 0% implied probability for a Bilibili Gaming victory, suggesting the market is pricing JD Gaming as the overwhelming favourite or that liquidity constraints are preventing meaningful price discovery on the YES side.
Historical precedent in Chinese LoL competition shows that JD Gaming has established itself as a top-tier organisation, whilst Bilibili Gaming's recent form and roster composition determine their competitive standing. The 0% probability on Polymarket typically emerges when traders see minimal edge for one outcome or when order book depth is shallow; this pricing does not necessarily reflect true match likelihood but rather the current state of available liquidity and trader positioning.
Key catalysts include any roster changes, coaching staff announcements, or injury disclosures between now and the match date. Patch updates to League of Legends that arrive before 14 April could shift meta-dependent matchup dynamics. Schedule delays or cancellations would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, a tail risk traders should monitor given esports' susceptibility to technical or organisational disruptions. Official LPL or Esports World Cup communications regarding qualifier logistics remain the primary information sources.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.douyu.com/424559. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3.2M in lifetime turnover and $1 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.douyu.com/424559. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 April 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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