Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Stariy Bog Club and TPaBoMaH Club in the Winline Star Series Group A, initially scheduled for May 28 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Stariy Bog Club" if Stariy Bog Club win the match against TPaBoMaH Club. This market will resolve to "TPaBoMaH Club" if TPaBoMaH Club win the match against Stariy Bog Club. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the YES side at 51%, making this a coinflip market with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $4K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ends in Daytime | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Any Player Rampage | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
Stariy Bog Club and TPaBoMaH Club are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within the Winline Star Series Group A on 28 May at 1:30PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for Stariy Bog Club's victory, suggesting near-parity between the two sides. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity rather than pre-match consensus, indicating traders remain genuinely uncertain about the outcome.
Both clubs operate within the Eastern European Dota 2 competitive landscape, where regional tournaments like Winline Star Series typically feature established squads with documented performance records. Historical matchups between similarly-ranked teams in group-stage formats show that home-region advantage and recent roster stability often correlate with outcomes, though individual series results remain volatile. The 51-49 split suggests the market has not identified a clear favourite based on available information about recent form, patch compatibility, or roster changes.
Traders should monitor official Winline and team announcements for roster confirmations, last-minute substitutions, or scheduling changes through the settlement window closing on 28 May at 23:30 UTC. Any public statements regarding player availability or team preparation in the days preceding the match could shift the order book materially. The resolution criteria include a 7-day grace period for delayed matches, meaning technical issues or unforeseen postponements would not automatically trigger a 50-50 split if a winner is eventually determined within that window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.dotabuff.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 28 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.dotabuff.com), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Dota 2: Stariy Bog Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($4K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Stariy Bog Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.dotabuff.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Dota 2: Stariy Bog Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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