Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Liquid and M80 in the IEM Atlanta Group B, initially scheduled for May 12 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against M80. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Liquid and M80 are scheduled to compete in a Counter-Strike best-of-three lower bracket quarterfinal at IEM Atlanta on 12 May at 7:00PM ET. The match determines progression in the tournament's Group B bracket, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated. Polymarket's current order book reflects a 72% implied probability favoring Liquid, pricing M80's upset chances at 28%.
Liquid enters as the higher-seeded roster with established international pedigree, though the organisation has experienced roster changes and inconsistent results in recent competitive seasons. M80, a North American team, has shown capability against tier-one opposition but typically operates at a lower ranking. Historical precedent from IEM events suggests favourites in lower bracket matches win approximately 70–75% of the time, which aligns closely with today's market pricing. The 72% probability sits within the expected range for a matchup between a stronger-favoured team and a secondary challenger in a single-elimination format.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability or last-minute roster adjustments before the scheduled start time. Tournament delays or technical issues could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match extends beyond seven days without completion. Recent IEM events have generally proceeded on schedule, though network or venue complications remain possible variables. Liquidity on Polymarket's order book will likely tighten as match time approaches, potentially shifting the probability if significant roster news or betting activity emerges in the final hours before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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