Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket round 1 match between SSSghoul and Vlad to the Bone666 in the UKIC Masters Division Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 7 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "SSSghoul" if SSSghoul win the match against Vlad to the Bone666. This market will resolve to "Vlad to the Bone666" if Vlad to the Bone666 win the match against SSSghoul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
SSSghoul and Vlad to the Bone666 are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the lower bracket of the UKIC Masters Division Playoffs on 7 May at 3:30PM ET. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability for SSSghoul's victory, as shown across Polymarket's order book. This extreme probability suggests either overwhelming confidence in SSSghoul's superiority or insufficient liquidity to establish a balanced two-sided market at present.
The UKIC Masters Division represents the UK and Ireland's premier competitive Counter-Strike circuit, where lower bracket matches typically feature teams with established track records. Historical patterns in regional esports markets show that 100% implied probabilities often persist when one team holds a significant skill gap or when the opposing team is substantially less known to the trading community. However, such extreme odds frequently compress once match day approaches and additional information surfaces regarding player availability, recent form, or tactical preparation.
Traders should monitor several catalysts before settlement on 8 May. Roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes would materially affect expectations, particularly if either team fields substitutes. Match postponements or cancellations would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, so schedule adherence becomes critical. Recent UKIC tournament results and head-to-head records between these squads, if available through esports databases or tournament organisers, would provide baseline context for evaluating whether current odds reflect genuine performance differentials or simply reflect information asymmetry in the prediction market itself.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ukcshub. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: SSSghoul vs Vlad to the Bone666 (BO3) - UKIC Masters Division Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$480 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ukcshub. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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