Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between RoundsGG and Lilmix in the Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 2 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "RoundsGG" if RoundsGG win the match against Lilmix. This market will resolve to "Lilmix" if Lilmix win the match against RoundsGG. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: LILMIX (-1.5) vs RoundsGG (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
RoundsGG and Lilmix are scheduled to compete in the Quarterfinal 1 match of the Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffs on 2 May at 6:00 AM ET, playing a best-of-three series in Counter-Strike. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for RoundsGG victory, suggesting either extreme confidence in Lilmix or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on 2 May, allowing approximately ten hours post-scheduled start for the match to conclude.
The 0% probability reading warrants scrutiny given typical volatility in tier-two esports matchups. Comparable Polymarket esports quarterfinals have historically shown wider probability distributions, particularly when one team lacks recent tournament visibility or when roster changes precede the event. RoundsGG's current market valuation implies near-certain elimination, a positioning that depends entirely on pre-match roster confirmation and recent form data. Lilmix's favouritism may reflect stronger recent results or established seeding within the Esplay structure, though limited public tournament history for either squad suggests information asymmetry.
Traders should monitor official Esplay Elite Gaming announcements regarding roster locks, any schedule adjustments, and team confirmations through 1 May. Forfeiture risk exists given the early morning ET start time and potential logistical constraints for either squad. The match's completion dependency—with resolution to 50-50 if delayed beyond seven days without determination—creates tail risk that current pricing may not fully account for. Recent esports tournament delays have increased in frequency; verification of both teams' participation status remains critical before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/titaanitv. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs Lilmix (BO3) - Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/titaanitv. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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