Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between TheMongolz and Team Falcons in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
TheMongolz, Mongolia's leading Counter-Strike roster, face Saudi Arabia's Team Falcons in Round 4 of the PGL Astana Group Stage on 12 May. The match is a best-of-three format scheduled for 4:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 37% implied probability for TheMongolz victory, suggesting market participants favour Team Falcons as the likely winners. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools.
TheMongolz have established themselves as a top-tier Asian side, regularly competing in international tournaments and maintaining consistent placements at major events. Team Falcons, assembled with significant investment from Saudi Arabia's esports initiative, have rapidly climbed rankings through roster acquisitions and tournament performances over the past eighteen months. Historical matchups between regional powerhouses at PGL events show that seeding, recent form, and map pool compatibility typically drive 60–70% of outcome variance. The current 37% probability for TheMongolz suggests the market is pricing in either recent underperformance, unfavourable map matchups, or Team Falcons' upward trajectory.
Traders should monitor official PGL Astana announcements regarding map selections, which typically occur 24–48 hours before matches. Team rosters' recent LAN results and any last-minute stand-in announcements would materially shift probabilities. The settlement window closes at the scheduled match time; delays beyond seven days without completion trigger a 50–50 resolution. Fixture congestion at multi-team tournaments occasionally produces schedule shifts that could affect player fatigue assessments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$83K in lifetime turnover and $227K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $83K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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