Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between INFURITY Gaming and Kinoa in the United21 Group C, initially scheduled for May 16 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "INFURITY Gaming" if INFURITY Gaming win the match against Kinoa. This market will resolve to "Kinoa" if Kinoa win the match against INFURITY Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Kinoa (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
INFURITY Gaming face Kinoa in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match within the United21 Group C tournament, scheduled for 16 May at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating genuine uncertainty amongst traders regarding which team will secure the victory. This even pricing suggests neither side commands a clear statistical advantage in the eyes of the market, despite potential differences in recent form or roster composition.
The 50-50 probability warrants scrutiny given the typical variance in competitive Counter-Strike matchups. Teams at this tier often exhibit inconsistent performance across different map pools and tactical preparations. Historical precedent from similar regional qualifiers shows that evenly-priced matches frequently reflect genuine competitive parity rather than information asymmetry, particularly when both squads lack extensive recent head-to-head data or when one team is relatively unknown to Western audiences.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule adjustments in the days preceding the match, as last-minute stand-ins or format changes can materially shift expectations. The settlement window extends to 16 May at 14:00 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer; however, any postponement beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution. Watch for official United21 announcements regarding group stage progression and whether either team faces competing commitments that could affect preparation intensity. Recent tournament schedules for regional qualifiers have occasionally experienced delays, making fixture confirmation a relevant data point through settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/united21_en. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Kinoa (BO3) - United21 Group C" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/united21_en. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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