Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between GamerLegion and BIG in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 1, initially scheduled for June 4 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against BIG. This market will resolve to "BIG" if BIG win the match against GamerLegion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map 1 Winner | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Match Winner | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-2.5) vs BIG (+2.5) | 52% YES | 49% NO |
GamerLegion and BIG will contest a best-of-three match in Round 4 of the IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 on 4 June 2026, with the fixture scheduled for 10:30 AM ET. The winner advances in the tournament bracket; the loser faces elimination or drops to a lower bracket depending on the event format. The current orderbook on Polymarket implies a 52% probability for GamerLegion victory, suggesting near-parity between the two rosters with a marginal lean towards the German-majority squad.
Historical matchups between these teams and their recent form in 2026 provide the baseline for calibrating this probability. GamerLegion has shown inconsistent results against top-tier opposition, whilst BIG has maintained steadier performance in European qualifiers and online competitions. Head-to-head records from the past 12 months favour neither team decisively, though BIG's map pool flexibility and experience in major tournaments typically grants them a structural advantage. The 52-48 split reflects uncertainty rather than confidence in either direction.
Traders should monitor player availability confirmations and any last-minute roster changes in the days preceding 4 June, as both organisations have experienced lineup adjustments throughout 2026. Map veto announcements and recent scrim results, if leaked through community sources, could shift the orderbook materially. Fixture delays beyond the seven-day window would trigger a 50-50 resolution, so settlement timing and broadcast schedule adherence warrant attention as the event date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $60K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $17K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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