Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between CYBERSHOKE Esports and megoshort in the BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 4 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "CYBERSHOKE Esports" if CYBERSHOKE Esports win the match against megoshort. This market will resolve to "megoshort" if megoshort win the match against CYBERSHOKE Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
CYBERSHOKE Esports face megashort in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 group stage, scheduled for 4 May at 10:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for CYBERSHOKE Esports, indicating near-complete market confidence in their victory. This extreme probability typically emerges when one team holds a substantial competitive advantage or when liquidity remains sparse enough that early positions establish the price ceiling.
European Counter-Strike group stage matches at this tier frequently see probability distributions skewed towards established organisations with proven rosters and recent tournament results. CYBERSHOKE Esports' positioning at certainty suggests either a significant skill differential relative to megashort, prior head-to-head records favouring them decisively, or both teams' recent form creating an asymmetric expectation. Comparable matches in regional European qualifiers show that 95%+ probabilities typically resolve correctly, though upsets do occur when underdog teams field substitutes or when technical issues affect favoured sides.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule announcements through 4 May, as player availability remains a primary catalyst for upset outcomes. The settlement window closes at 17:10 UTC on 4 May, providing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches. Any withdrawal by either team, significant roster changes announced before match time, or technical delays extending beyond 11 May would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Current liquidity constraints appear to be anchoring the probability at extremes rather than reflecting genuine market discovery.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/bcgamemastersb. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$41K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/bcgamemastersb. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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