Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal match between BASEMENT BOYS and A Great Chaos in the Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 11 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BASEMENT BOYS" if BASEMENT BOYS win the match against A Great Chaos. This market will resolve to "A Great Chaos" if A Great Chaos win the match against BASEMENT BOYS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: BMB (-1.5) vs A Great Chaos (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
BASEMENT BOYS face A Great Chaos in a lower bracket semifinal of the Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs, a best-of-three Counter-Strike match scheduled for 11 May 2026 at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability favouring BASEMENT BOYS, suggesting the market views them as clear favourites in this elimination fixture. Resolution occurs immediately upon match completion, with the settlement window closing at 14:00 UTC on the scheduled date.
Lower bracket semifinals in regional Counter-Strike tournaments typically favour higher-seeded or more established rosters, though upsets remain common given the format's single-elimination pressure. BASEMENT BOYS' current probability aligns with typical pricing for teams entering such matches as seeding favourites, though the 19% tail probability assigned to A Great Chaos reflects genuine uncertainty inherent in best-of-three play where map selection and momentum shifts can prove decisive. Historical volatility in similar Challenger Championship fixtures suggests meaningful probability movement remains possible as match time approaches.
Traders should monitor official Parken Challenger Championship announcements regarding roster confirmations, any last-minute scheduling changes, or player availability issues that could affect either team's preparation. The 7-day tie-resolution clause creates minor settlement risk if technical issues or disputes delay result confirmation beyond 18 May. Current pricing offers limited value at 81%, though sharp movement would likely occur only upon concrete roster or scheduling developments rather than pre-match speculation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/challengerchampionship. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs A Great Chaos (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$862 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $862 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/challengerchampionship. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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