Trade: First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Gold" if, between October 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 per troy ounce during regular trading hours before Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds that same price according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT. This market will resolve to "ETH" if, within that same timeframe, Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT before the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds that same price per troy ounce during regular…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- —
- Total Volume
- $1.7M
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $0
Market outcomes
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
This market tests whether gold or Ethereum will breach $5,000 per unit first between October 2025 and June 2026. Gold trades on COMEX during regular hours; Ethereum settles on Binance spot markets continuously. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects an extreme skew, suggesting either minimal liquidity at the YES side or a consensus view that one asset reaching $5,000 is near-certain whilst the other is not.
Historically, gold has reached $2,500 per troy ounce (September 2024), requiring a 100% appreciation to hit $5,000. Ethereum peaked near $4,900 in November 2021 and traded around $3,500–$4,000 through 2024, making the $5,000 threshold comparatively closer. Gold's path to $5,000 would require sustained geopolitical stress, currency debasement, or inflation expectations significantly beyond current consensus. Ethereum's trajectory depends on sustained cryptocurrency adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic conditions favouring risk assets—conditions that historically move in opposite directions to those driving gold rallies.
Near-term catalysts include the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions (which typically inverse gold demand), major cryptocurrency regulatory announcements, and geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven flows. Bitcoin's price action often leads Ethereum's directional moves. Gold's path is sensitive to US dollar strength and real yields; a weakening dollar or falling real rates would accelerate its ascent. The 100% probability suggests traders should examine order-book depth carefully, as such extreme readings often indicate thin liquidity rather than genuine certainty.
Wikipedia Context
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First-past-the-post votingFirst-past-the-post (FPTP)—also called choose-one, first-preference plurality (FPP), or simply plurality—is a single-winner voting rule. Each voter marks one candidate as their favorite, or first-preference, and the candidate with more first-preference votes than any other candidate is elected, even if they do not have more than half of votes.
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First Amendment to the United States ConstitutionThe First Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents Congress from making laws respecting an establishment of religion; prohibiting the free exercise of religion; or abridging the freedom of speech, the freedom of the press, the freedom of peaceable assembly and the right to petition the government for redress of grievances. It was adopted on Decem
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First presidency of Donald TrumpDonald Trump's first tenure as the president of the United States began on January 20, 2017, when he was inaugurated as the 45th president, and ended on January 20, 2021. Trump, a Republican, took office after defeating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. Upon his inauguration, he became the first president in American history without prior public of
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First Sino-Japanese WarThe First Sino-Japanese War, or the First China–Japan War, was a conflict between the Qing dynasty of China and the Empire of Japan primarily for influence over Korea. In China it is commonly known as the Jiawu War. After 6 to 7 months of unbroken successes by Japanese land and naval forces and the loss of the ports of Lüshunkou and Weihaiwei, the Qing gover
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "First to 5k: Gold or ETH?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.7M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "First to 5k: Gold or ETH?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "First to 5k: Gold or ETH?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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