Trade: Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $28K
- Total Volume
- $278K
- 24h Volume
- $235
- Open Interest
- $43K
Market outcomes
| $50M | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| $25M | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| $100M | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| $500M | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| $1B | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $300M | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $800M | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $2B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Felix Protocol is preparing to launch a token, and this market concerns whether its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of that launch becoming publicly tradable. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the token price at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch, with resolution sourced from the most liquid available price feed. The settlement window closes on 31 December 2026, meaning the token must launch by that date for the market to resolve.
Token launches in the crypto sector show highly variable FDV outcomes depending on launch mechanics, initial liquidity provision, and market conditions. Projects launching via fair-distribution mechanisms or decentralised exchanges typically see lower initial FDVs than those with concentrated early allocations or centralised exchange listings. Comparable protocol tokens have ranged from modest valuations at launch to multi-billion-pound FDVs within hours, contingent on factors including team reputation, ecosystem utility, and broader market sentiment. The current 39% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty around Felix's launch parameters and market reception.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements regarding Felix's token distribution model, launch exchange partnerships, and any scheduled mainnet or testnet milestones. The protocol's technical progress and community engagement metrics will influence expectations around trading volume and price discovery at launch. Broader cryptocurrency market conditions in late 2026 will also materially affect initial FDV, as will any regulatory developments affecting token launches or trading in major jurisdictions.
Wikipedia Context
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Felix FrankfurterFelix Frankfurter was an American jurist who served as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States from 1939 until 1962, advocating judicial restraint.
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Felix DzerzhinskyFelix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky, nicknamed Iron Felix, was a Bolshevik revolutionary and politician of Polish origin. From 1917 until his death in 1926, he led the first three Soviet secret police organizations—the Cheka, the GPU and the OGPU—establishing state security organs for the new Soviet government.
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António Félix da CostaAntónio Maria de Mello Breyner Félix da Costa is a Portuguese racing driver who competes in Formula E for Jaguar and in the FIA World Endurance Championship for Alpine. Félix da Costa won the 2019–20 Formula E Championship with Techeetah, and has won 13 ePrix across 12 seasons. In endurance racing, Félix da Costa won the FIA Endurance Trophy for LMP2 Drivers
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Felix AdercaFelix Aderca, also known as F. Aderca, Zelicu Froim Adercu or Froim Aderca, was a Romanian novelist, playwright, poet, journalist and critic, noted as a representative of rebellious modernism in the context of Romanian literature. As a member of the Sburătorul circle and close friend of its founder Eugen Lovinescu, Aderca promoted the ideas of literary innov
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$278K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $235 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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