Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,900 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| 2,500-2,600 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 2,600-2,700 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on 13 May 2026, roughly eighteen months forward. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of pricing such distant crypto spot prices with precision. Long-dated Ethereum price brackets typically see minimal liquidity at the extremes, with traders concentrating positions around expected volatility ranges rather than committing capital to narrow price bands years ahead. The current order book depth suggests limited appetite for either side at present valuations, a pattern common for settlement windows beyond twelve months where macro uncertainty dominates micro-level price prediction.
Historical precedent shows Ethereum's annualised volatility has ranged from 40% to 120% depending on market regime, making eighteen-month price forecasts inherently wide. The 2021–2022 cycle saw swings from $730 to $4,800, whilst the 2023–2024 recovery moved from $880 to $4,000, illustrating how regulatory clarity, macroeconomic conditions, and competing layer-2 solutions reshape valuation frameworks across multi-year horizons. Traders typically avoid narrow brackets at such distances unless specific catalysts—Ethereum Shanghai-style upgrades, major institutional adoption milestones, or regulatory shifts—create conviction.
Monitoring points through 2026 include Ethereum's scaling roadmap execution, particularly Dencun and subsequent hard forks affecting transaction costs and validator economics. Broader crypto market drivers—Federal Reserve policy shifts, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and institutional custody developments—will likely prove more predictive than Ethereum-specific news. Current order book positioning suggests traders are deferring commitment until clearer directional signals emerge closer to settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $72K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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