Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of DoubleZero's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If DoubleZero doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $3B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $1B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
DoubleZero is a cryptocurrency project planning to launch a publicly tradable token by the end of 2026. This market tests whether the token's fully diluted valuation (FDV)—the theoretical market cap if all tokens were in circulation—will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of launch. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extremely high confidence in a launch occurring, minimal liquidity in the order book creating wide bid-ask spreads, or both. With settlement nearly two years away, the current pricing likely reflects the baseline assumption that if DoubleZero launches at all, it will do so with sufficient initial demand to clear the FDV threshold.
Comparable crypto token launches show highly variable outcomes. Major protocol tokens like Ethereum and Solana achieved substantial FDVs immediately upon trading, whilst numerous smaller projects launched with minimal liquidity and valuations well below pre-launch expectations. The outcome depends heavily on pre-launch hype, institutional participation, and market conditions at launch date. A 100% probability suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally strong pre-launch narrative or treating the threshold as easily achievable relative to typical launch valuations.
Key variables include DoubleZero's announcement of a specific launch date, details of token distribution and unlock schedules, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment in late 2026. Any material delays, regulatory setbacks, or competing project launches could shift probabilities significantly. Traders should monitor official DoubleZero communications and market conditions closely, as the current pricing leaves no margin for launch failure or weak initial demand.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "DoubleZero FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$117K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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