Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 11PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles based on whether Dogecoin closes at or above its opening price during a single one-hour candle on Binance's DOGE/USDT pair at 11PM ET on 2 May 2026. The resolution hinges on intraday price movement across that specific 60-minute window, with settlement finalised the following day at 04:00 UTC.
The current 100% implied probability reflects extreme confidence in an upward or flat close, yet this pricing appears disconnected from typical intraday volatility patterns for Dogecoin. Historical one-hour candles on major pairs rarely show such certainty; even modest cryptocurrencies experience directional swings within hourly windows. The Polymarket order book's depth at these extremes is likely shallow, meaning small position sizes have moved the probability to this ceiling. Comparable hourly resolution markets on established pairs typically trade between 45–55% for directional outcomes, suggesting the current pricing may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine conviction about price action.
Traders should monitor Dogecoin's broader market conditions in late April and early May 2026, including Bitcoin's trajectory and any material announcements from Elon Musk or Tesla regarding cryptocurrency holdings. Macroeconomic data releases—particularly US inflation figures or Federal Reserve communications—can trigger volatility across risk assets including altcoins. The settlement window's timing during US evening hours means US-based trading activity will dominate price formation. Any significant news or market event in the 24 hours preceding the candle could shift intraday momentum substantially, making the current extreme probability vulnerable to repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 11PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: