Trade: Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Concrete's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Concrete will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $423
- 24h Volume
- $21
- Open Interest
- $378
Market outcomes
| $50M | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| $100M | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| $200M | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| $300M | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| $500M | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| $800M | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| $1B | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Market context
Concrete is preparing to launch a native token, with the market pricing in a 92% probability that its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of going live. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the token price at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The resolution criteria exclude stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetics, focusing only on an officially launched token that achieves active public trading.
Recent cryptocurrency token launches have demonstrated highly variable first-day valuations, influenced substantially by initial liquidity provision and market sentiment. Comparable launches from established protocols show FDV ranges spanning from modest valuations to several billion pounds within hours, depending on pre-launch hype, backer composition and initial trading volume. The current 92% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence that Concrete's token will achieve sufficient trading activity and price discovery to clear the threshold, though the specific FDV target remains unspecified in this framing.
Traders monitoring this market should track Concrete's official announcements regarding launch timing, initial token distribution mechanics and exchange listings. The protocol's existing user base, developer activity and recent funding rounds will shape early demand. Market conditions at launch—particularly broader cryptocurrency sentiment and competing token events—will significantly influence whether initial price discovery supports the implied probability. The settlement window extending to January 2028 provides ample time for launch execution, though the actual resolution hinges on events occurring within a narrow 24-hour window following token availability.
Wikipedia Context
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Concrete degradationConcrete degradation may have many different causes. Concrete is mostly damaged by the corrosion of reinforcement bars, the carbonatation of hardened cement paste or chloride attack under wet conditions. Chemical damage is caused by the formation of expansive products produced by chemical reactions, by aggressive chemical species present in groundwater and s
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Concrete RevolutioConcrete Revolutio: Superhuman Phantasmagoria is a Japanese superhero anime television series created and written by Shō Aikawa, directed by Seiji Mizushima, produced by Bones, and featuring character designs by Yoshiyuki Ito. It began airing in Japan in October 2015. A second season debuted on 3 April 2016.
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Concrete leveling
In civil engineering, concrete leveling is a procedure that attempts to correct an uneven concrete surface by altering the foundation on which the surface sits. It is a cheaper alternative to having replacement concrete poured and is commonly performed at small businesses and private homes as well as at factories, warehouses, airports and on roads, highways
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Concrete LoveConcrete Love is the fourth studio album by British rock band Courteeners, released on 18 August 2014 via Cooperative Music label. It features the band delve further into a post-punk sound and was inspired by 1980s music. Promoted by two singles, Concrete Love received generally favourable reviews from music critics and reached number three on the UK Albums
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$423 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $21 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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