Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <72,000 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 78,000-80,000 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 80,000-82,000 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 82,000-84,000 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 84,000-86,000 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon ET on 21 May 2026, with resolution determined by the 1-minute candle at that specific timestamp. The 2% implied probability reflects a narrow band outcome—the market is pricing in that Bitcoin will close within a defined range on that date, with the YES resolution contingent on precise price alignment rather than directional movement alone. On Polymarket's order book, this tight probability suggests limited liquidity backing the affirmative side, indicating traders view the exact-price scenario as unlikely relative to Bitcoin trading outside the specified bracket.
Bitcoin's historical volatility and the five-year timeframe to settlement create substantial uncertainty for pinpoint price predictions. Over comparable multi-year horizons, spot prices have moved through multiple market cycles—from bear markets to bull runs—making static price brackets difficult to defend. The 2% probability reflects rational scepticism about Bitcoin remaining confined to a narrow range through May 2026, particularly given macroeconomic variables, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption patterns that remain unforecast over such extended periods.
Near-term catalysts include Federal Reserve policy signals, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and any major regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies that could shift medium-term price trajectories. Bitcoin's correlation with broader risk assets means equity market performance and inflation expectations will influence directional bias. Traders monitoring this market should track quarterly macroeconomic data releases and any significant cryptocurrency regulation announcements, as these typically drive sustained price movements that could push Bitcoin well outside any narrow settlement bracket by May 2026.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin price on May 21?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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