Trade: Ben Pasternak jailed?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ben Pasternak serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $49K
- 24h Volume
- $2
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| Ben Pasternak jailed? | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
Ben Pasternak, the cryptocurrency entrepreneur and founder of Yuga Labs (creators of the Bored Ape Yacht Club), faces potential criminal exposure related to various business dealings within the crypto sector. The market assesses the probability he will serve time in U.S. custody by the end of 2026. Current trading on Polymarket's order book reflects a 12% implied probability of incarceration, suggesting traders view material legal risk as present but not the base case.
Comparable outcomes in crypto enforcement provide context for interpreting this probability. High-profile figures including Sam Bankman-Fried, Do Kwon, and Changpeng Zhao have faced prosecution or conviction, though outcomes have varied substantially—from acquittal to lengthy sentences to ongoing fugitive status. The 12% probability sits between the typical baseline for white-collar defendants (roughly 5–8% face incarceration absent formal charges) and the elevated risk seen when investigations are publicly active. No formal indictment against Pasternak has been announced as of early 2025, which anchors the relatively modest probability.
Traders should monitor SEC or DOJ enforcement announcements, which typically precede charges by months. Regulatory filings, statements from Yuga Labs regarding investigations, and developments in parallel crypto enforcement actions may signal shifting risk. The settlement window extends nearly two years, providing substantial time for legal proceedings to advance. Any formal charges would likely shift market pricing materially, as conviction rates in federal cases exceed 90% when cases proceed to trial.
Wikipedia Context
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Ben PasternakBenjamin Pasternak is an Australian technology entrepreneur. He is best known as the co-founder of Simulate, an American food technology company. Previously, Pasternak founded Monkey, a social networking app that enabled teenagers to video chat with like-minded people. He also founded the cryptocurrency project Believe, which has been the subject of investor
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Beth Pasternak
Beth Pasternak is a Canadian costume designer. She has worked on films with director Atom Egoyan, such as The Sweet Hereafter (1997), Ararat (2002) and Where the Truth Lies, as well as Kevin Smith's 2011 horror film Red State.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Ben Pasternak jailed?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 12% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $833 if YES resolves true — a 733% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$49K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Ben Pasternak jailed?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Ben Pasternak jailed?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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