Crypto

Trade: Aztec FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Opened 18 November 2025 · Settles 1 January 2027 · 53 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aztec's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aztec (https://aztec.network/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $1.3M
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

$800M	0% YES	100% NO
$1.5B	0% YES	100% NO
$500M	0% YES	100% NO
$1B	0% YES	100% NO
$2B	0% YES	100% NO
$300M	0% YES	100% NO
$150M	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

Aztec is a privacy-focused scaling solution for Ethereum that has been in development for several years. The protocol enables confidential transactions and private smart contracts through zero-knowledge proofs. The market is pricing whether Aztec's native token will achieve a fully diluted valuation above a specified threshold within one day of becoming publicly tradable, with a deadline of 31 December 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty around both token launch timing and post-launch valuation dynamics.

Historical precedent suggests caution when extrapolating from recent layer-2 and privacy protocol token launches. Arbitrum's ARB token opened at roughly $1.66 in March 2023 with an FDV near $2.4bn, whilst Optimism's OP launched at $1.47 with an FDV around $2.1bn. However, these projects had significantly larger user bases and transaction volumes at launch. Aztec has maintained a smaller but engaged developer community, with limited mainnet activity relative to established scaling solutions. The 0% probability reflects scepticism about whether Aztec can command a comparable valuation on day one, particularly given competitive pressures from established privacy solutions and rollups.

Key catalysts include formal announcements regarding token distribution mechanics, launch timing, and initial exchange listings. Aztec's development roadmap and mainnet adoption metrics will influence market expectations. Recent activity in the privacy-focused blockchain sector, including regulatory developments affecting privacy protocols, may affect investor appetite at launch. The settlement window extends through early 2027, allowing time for token launch but creating extended uncertainty around valuation thresholds that remain unspecified in current market conditions.

Wikipedia Context

Aztec death whistle
The Aztec death whistle or ehecachichtli is a type of whistle formerly used by the Mexica people. Though the original whistles likely made a wind-like sound, modern replicas usually produce a high-pitched shrieking sound and are most commonly used to scare off people or animals.
Aztec dancer
The Aztec dancer damselfly is one of the pond damsels. Common name originates from the Aztecs, and scientific names comes from the Nahuas.
Aztec fruit-eating bat
The Aztec fruit-eating bat is a species of bat in the family Phyllostomidae.
Aztec diamond
In combinatorial mathematics, an Aztec diamond of order n consists of all squares of a square lattice whose centers (x,y) satisfy |x| + |y| ≤ n. Here n is a fixed integer, and the square lattice consists of unit squares with the origin as a vertex of 4 of them, so that both x and y are half-integers.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Aztec FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$1.3M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Aztec FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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