Trade: What price will Aster hit in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Aster hit before 2027?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $67K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2.00 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| ↑ 1.60 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| ↑ 1.20 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 0.80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 0.40 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| ↑ 2.20 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| ↑ 1.80 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| ↑ 1.40 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
Market context
Aster, a layer-two scaling solution and modular blockchain platform, faces a price target assessment ahead of the 2027 settlement window. The current Polymarket order book is pricing a 16% probability that Aster will reach an unspecified price threshold before 1 January 2027, reflecting moderate scepticism among traders regarding near-term appreciation over the next twelve months.
Historical precedent for layer-two tokens suggests wide variance in adoption-driven price movements. Arbitrum and Optimism both experienced significant volatility following mainnet launches and ecosystem milestones, with prices fluctuating between 50% drawdowns and multi-fold gains within similar timeframes. Aster's positioning as a modular blockchain introduces different dynamics than traditional rollup solutions; comparable projects like Celestia and Avail have shown that infrastructure tokens can sustain elevated valuations during periods of active developer adoption and ecosystem expansion, though liquidity constraints and market sentiment shifts create substantial downside risk.
Traders monitoring Aster should track ecosystem development announcements, validator participation metrics, and transaction volume on the network. Recent blockchain infrastructure funding cycles have tightened, and regulatory clarity around staking mechanisms remains incomplete in several jurisdictions. Macroeconomic conditions affecting risk asset appetite, particularly movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, will likely dominate price discovery given Aster's correlation with broader crypto market cycles. The settlement window extends through the end of 2026, meaning the final quarter of that year will be critical for price formation.
Wikipedia Context
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Sterling PriceSterling Price was an American politician and military officer who was a senior officer of the Confederate States Army, fighting in both the Western and Trans-Mississippi theater of the American Civil War. He rose to prominence during the Mexican–American War and served as governor of Missouri from 1853 to 1857. He is remembered today for his service in Arka
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Stella PriceStella Price is a fictional character from the British ITV soap opera Coronation Street, played by Michelle Collins. Collins' casting was announced in April 2011 and she began filming her scenes in May. The actress commuted from north London to Manchester for filming. Collins joined the show in order to have the financial security to ensure that her daughter
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Steve Price (rugby league, born 1974)Steven John Price is an Australian former professional rugby league footballer who played in the 1990s and 2000s primarily as a prop. An Australian international representative, he retired as Queensland's most capped State of Origin forward. Price captained Sydney club, the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs as well as New Zealand NRL club, the Warriors.
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Steven Price (composer)Steven Price is an English film composer, best known for scoring Gravity, which won him the Academy Award for Best Original Score. Before making his debut as a composer with Attack the Block, he worked on the music department for various notable films, such as The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Batman Begins
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "What price will Aster hit in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$67K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto prices contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "What price will Aster hit in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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