Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Dogecoin's price in US dollars will be higher or equal at 5:15AM ET on 5 May 2026 compared to 5:10AM ET that same morning, using Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed as the settlement source. The five-minute window represents an extremely tight timeframe for price movement, making this a micro-duration volatility play rather than a directional bet on broader market sentiment.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the structural difficulty of pricing such compressed timeframes. Historical precedent from similar ultra-short-duration crypto markets shows that five-minute windows typically see minimal net directional movement, with prices clustering near opening levels due to the brevity of the interval. Comparable markets on intraday forex and commodity futures demonstrate that extreme probability skew towards "down" outcomes on such tight windows often emerges when liquidity providers price in the statistical likelihood of flat or near-flat price action. The current crowd assessment suggests traders view upward movement within this specific window as exceptionally unlikely relative to stasis or decline.
Dogecoin's price action on 5 May 2026 will depend on broader crypto market conditions that morning, though no scheduled announcements or major events are currently flagged for that specific date. Traders monitoring this market should watch overnight trading volumes and any volatility spikes in Bitcoin or Ethereum, which typically drive correlated movements in altcoins. Chainlink's data feed latency and any network congestion affecting price feed updates could influence settlement precision, though such technical factors rarely shift outcomes on five-minute intervals.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto prices contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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