Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price according to Chainlink's BTC/USD data feed will be higher or unchanged during a five-minute window on 2 June 2026 between 9:55AM and 10:00AM ET. The settlement relies specifically on Chainlink's oracle pricing rather than spot exchange data, which can occasionally diverge during volatile periods or low-liquidity intervals. The five-minute resolution window is narrow enough that intraday volatility becomes the primary driver rather than directional conviction.
Five-minute price movements in Bitcoin historically show no directional bias; roughly half close higher and half lower across comparable periods. The current 100% implied probability on the order book reflects either extreme confidence in upward momentum heading into that specific window or illiquidity in the market's depth. With settlement not occurring until 14:00 ET on the same day, traders have substantial time to reassess positions based on morning price action and any macroeconomic releases. The Federal Reserve's economic calendar and equity futures performance in the hours before 10:00AM ET will likely influence Bitcoin's positioning.
Traders should monitor overnight cryptocurrency exchange volumes and any significant moves in the 8:00AM–9:55AM window, as momentum often persists into tight time intervals. Chainlink's data feed updates frequently but can occasionally lag during extreme volatility, creating discrepancies between real-time spot prices and oracle settlement values. The current probability suggests minimal perceived downside risk, though five-minute intervals remain inherently unpredictable without specific catalysts anchoring price direction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$147K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto prices contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $147K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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