Trade: Will Valve add first CS2 operation by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve releases an operation to CS2 by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, "Valve" refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series. For the purpose of this market, a "CS2 operation" refers to a major, time-limited content update officially released by Valve for Counter-Strike 2, which may include: -A purchasable Operation Pass (or equivalent) with an upgradable coin, enhanced missions, and exclusive rewards. -A campaign of missions (e.g., weekly or star-based progression) in official matchmaking.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $552
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| May 31 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| June 30 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| August 31 | 28% YES | 73% NO |
Market context
Counter-Strike 2's launch in September 2023 marked a significant shift in Valve's approach to the franchise, moving away from the legacy Global Offensive client. Operations—time-limited content seasons featuring purchasable passes, mission chains, and cosmetic rewards—were a cornerstone of CS:GO's engagement model for nearly a decade. As of early 2025, Valve has not released a formal operation for CS2, instead deploying seasonal cosmetics and battle passes through alternative frameworks. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 6% implied probability that Valve will introduce a traditional CS2 operation by September 2026, pricing in substantial scepticism about whether the developer intends to resurrect the operation format in its original structure.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals. CS:GO received its first operation (Bravo) approximately eight months after launch in 2012, establishing operations as recurring revenue drivers. However, Valve's post-launch strategy for CS2 has diverged markedly: the company has prioritised stability patches, anti-cheat refinement, and cosmetic releases over structured seasonal operations. The absence of an operation announcement across a 16-month window since launch suggests either deprioritisation or a pivot toward alternative monetisation models. Traders should monitor Valve's official blog, Steam community updates, and major esports calendar announcements—particularly around Major tournaments—for signals of renewed operation development. Recent industry reporting indicates Valve remains focused on technical infrastructure rather than content roadmaps, though this posture could shift if player engagement metrics decline.
Wikipedia Context
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Valve amplifierA valve amplifier or tube amplifier is a type of electronic amplifier that uses vacuum tubes to increase the amplitude or power of a signal. Low to medium power valve amplifiers for frequencies below the microwaves were largely replaced by solid state amplifiers in the 1960s and 1970s. Valve amplifiers can be used for applications such as guitar amplifiers,
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Valve audio amplifier technical specification
Technical specifications and detailed information on the valve audio amplifier, including its development history.
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Valve audio amplifier
A valve audio amplifier (UK) or vacuum tube audio amplifier (US) is a valve amplifier used for sound reinforcement, sound recording and reproduction.
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Valve Anti-CheatValve Anti-Cheat (VAC) is an automated anti-cheat system developed by Valve and first released with Counter-Strike in 2002 to enforce rules in online multiplayer games distributed through the Steam platform. The system detects unauthorized modifications to a game, including third-party software designed to manipulate gameplay, as well as alterations to core
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Valve add first CS2 operation by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $552 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for counter strike 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Valve add first CS2 operation by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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