Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The IEM Cologne Major 2026 is scheduled to take place from June 2 to June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for IEM Cologne Major 2026.If the listed team officially qualifies as one of the teams invited to IEM Cologne Major 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Ties in standings will be broken according to the official ESL / Valve rules.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BIG | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 3DMAX | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| BetBoom Team | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| SINNERS Esports | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| HOTU | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| B8 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Team Liquid | 100% YES | 0% NO |
IEM Cologne Major 2026 will take place from 2 to 21 June 2026, representing one of Counter-Strike 2's premier international tournaments. The event operates under ESL and Valve's official qualification framework, with teams earning invitations through regional performance, circuit points, and direct selections. The current 100% implied probability across Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that qualification for this specific event is virtually certain to occur as scheduled, with participants officially confirmed before the August 1 settlement deadline.
Historical precedent from previous Majors demonstrates that ESL consistently publishes participant rosters well in advance of tournament dates. IEM Katowice and other flagship events have maintained reliable qualification announcements 4–8 weeks prior to competition, establishing a pattern traders can reference. The 100% probability also accounts for the structural unlikelihood of indefinite postponement or cancellation given ESL's operational track record and Counter-Strike 2's established calendar prominence.
Key catalysts for traders include ESL's official announcement of the 2026 qualification criteria, expected in late 2025 or early 2026, and the publication of regional qualifier results throughout spring 2026. Monitoring circuit point distributions and team roster changes during the qualification window will signal which organisations are positioning for invitations. Any material disruption to the professional circuit—such as significant tournament cancellations or organisational withdrawals—could alter qualification dynamics, though the current probability suggests market participants view such scenarios as remote.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which teams will qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$144K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for counter strike 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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