Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the contestant who wins Chopped Castaways Season 1, scheduled to premiere May 12, 2026. If Chopped Castaways Season 1 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Chopped Castaways Season 1 has otherwise not concluded by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will remain open until the conclusion of the season. The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the final episode of Chopped Castaways Season 1.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ara Zada | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Cate Meade | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Hannah Flora | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Jean-Paul Bourgeois | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Paulette Tejada | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Sunny Moody | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Chef B | — | |
| Chef D | — | |
Chopped Castaways is a spinoff of the long-running Food Network competition series, pairing professional chefs with survival challenges on an island setting. The inaugural season premieres 12 May 2026 and will determine a single winner across multiple elimination rounds. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 49% probability for the unnamed contestant in question, suggesting the market views this competitor as roughly even-odds against the field.
Historical Chopped formats provide limited precedent for predicting outcomes in a survival-integrated competition. Standard Chopped seasons feature ingredient-based cooking challenges where judges evaluate technical skill and creativity under time pressure. The Castaways variant introduces environmental and resource constraints that may favour different skill sets—potentially advantaging contestants with foraging knowledge, outdoor experience, or adaptability over pure culinary technique. Previous Food Network competition winners have typically excelled at improvisation and composure under pressure, traits that may translate to this format but remain unproven.
The resolution window extends to 31 July 2026, providing roughly two months after the premiere for the full season to air. Traders should monitor Food Network's broadcast schedule and any production announcements regarding episode count and finale date. Contestant rosters typically release closer to premiere, which will allow assessment of the field strength and individual competitor backgrounds. Any production delays or scheduling changes announced before May 2026 could affect the timeline for season conclusion and thus the market's settlement date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will win Chopped Castaways?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $36 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cook contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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