Trade: How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $52K
- Total Volume
- $73K
- 24h Volume
- $19
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| 11 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| 5 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| <5 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 7 | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| 9 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 12+ | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 6 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 8 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
Market context
The 2026 midterm elections will determine which Republican senators seek another term. This market resolves based on how many sitting Republican senators publicly announce retirement or choose to pursue different offices instead of defending their seats. The settlement window closes on 31 August 2026, capturing announcements through the final weeks before the November general election. Currently, Polymarket's order book implies a 20% probability that fewer than a specified threshold of Republicans will exit, suggesting traders expect relatively modest retirements among the GOP caucus.
Historical patterns offer context for interpreting this probability. In 2022, five Senate Republicans retired or ran for other offices, whilst in 2018 the figure was four. Retirements typically cluster around seats deemed vulnerable or held by longer-serving members facing fatigue. The current 20% implied probability reflects expectations of single-digit retirements, consistent with recent cycles where Republican senators have generally sought reelection despite challenging political environments.
Traders should monitor formal retirement announcements from sitting Republican senators, which typically accelerate in the 18 months preceding an election. Key catalysts include individual health disclosures, shifting state-level political dynamics, and redistricting outcomes affecting seat competitiveness. Recent reporting indicates several senior Republicans have signalled openness to stepping aside, though formal commitments remain sparse as of early 2025. The market will reprice substantially once major figures make definitive statements, particularly senators from competitive states or those approaching the end of lengthy tenures.
Wikipedia Context
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Maine Republican PartyThe Maine Republican Party is an affiliate of the United States Republican Party in Maine. It was founded in Strong, Maine, on August 7, 1854. The party currently does not control the governor's office or either chamber of the Maine Legislature, nor either of Maine's two U.S. House. The only federal elected office that the party controls is one of Maine's tw
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Factions in the Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party in the United States includes several factions, or wings. During the 19th century, Republican factions included the Half-Breeds, who supported civil service reform; the Radical Republicans, who advocated the immediate and total abolition of slavery, and later advocated civil rights for freedmen during the Reconstruction era; and the St
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MAGA movementThe Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement is an American political movement that began with Donald Trump's announcement initiating a campaign in the 2016 United States presidential election. The movement is closely aligned with Trumpism, a set of ideologies and beliefs surrounding Trump. Due to the alignment with Trumpism, the movement commonly advocates
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2016 United States presidential election in MaineThe 2016 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman,
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$73K in lifetime turnover and $52K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for congress contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $19 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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